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This week's hot spots
Pulsing markers show counties with the highest projected crash volume for the next 7 days. Numbered pins call out the top 5 statewide crash segments. Tap any county or pin to open the crash map filtered to that area.
Utah Risk Map
Daily projection
Year-weighted historical average for each calendar day, adjusted for day-of-week patterns. Holiday weekends bump projections slightly upward to reflect recreational travel.
Statewide hotspots
Single quarter-mile street segments with the most crashes in this calendar window across 2021–2025. Each row deep-links to the crash map zoomed to that segment.
What to watch for
Hazards grouped by category — severity first, weather last. Within each group, cards are listed in an order optimized for audience clarity (most-serious-first for severity, vulnerable-users-first for people, morning-to-late-night for time). Each card links to the crash map filtered to that hazard.
Where it's happening
Top counties by projected weekly crash volume. Each card shows projected count, year-over-year change, the dominant hazard, and the top 3 segments where crashes cluster in each commute window — morning rush, midday, and afternoon rush.
This week, over time
Total crashes in the same ±7-day calendar window across the last five years.
How we forecast
For today's day-of-year, we pull every crash within ±7 days across 2021–2025 — a 15-day rolling window across five years, roughly 75 days of comparable historical observations.
The baseline is a year-weighted average (recent years weight more: 0.28 (2025), 0.24, 0.20, 0.16, 0.12 (2021)). Each forecast day starts as the baseline scaled by its day-of-week multiplier. Holiday weekends (Memorial Day, Independence Day, Pioneer Day, Labor Day, Thanksgiving) receive an 8–12% bump for recreational travel.
The risk score for each hazard combines relative volume (60%), severity weighting (KSI and pedestrians up-weighted because Vision Zero and HSIP optimize for these outcomes), and a year-over-year trend bonus.
The forecast also uses weather. UDOT tags every crash with the weather at the time of the crash (rain, snow, fog, etc.) and the road surface (wet, snow/ice, dry). For each weather category we compute an empirical day-level rate: how many crashes per day occur when, say, snow is reported, versus a comparable day without snow. That ratio becomes a multiplier — for example, snow days in Utah historically run about 1.4–1.8× the dry-day rate. When the 7-day weather forecast from Open-Meteo calls for snow on a given day, that day's projection is multiplied by the snow multiplier from your own data. When the empirical sample is too small (fewer than 3 weather-days in the window), we fall back to FHWA's published rates from How Do Weather Events Impact Roads? (FHWA-HOP-15-038).
Locations are joined to UDOT's road network by street_id — the same quarter-mile segments used by the PMTiles crash map. Every count on this page ties back to a column in udot_stats.csv, and every address links to the crash map zoomed to that segment.